Demand and capacity management for GP practices

This article is about the best approach to Demand and capacity management for GP practices.

Background

Our data analysis indicates that demand for appointments in GP practices tends to be more predictable, while capacity fluctuates significantly. This volatility in capacity is largely due to a lack of detailed planning, which is itself a result of the complexity of the data involved, such as multiple dimensions of sometimes competing information, multiple variables, unforeseen circumstances and interdependencies within practice rotering.

Demand Predictability:

Using long-term data spanning several months, demand patterns can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy through statistical modelling. This is because demand generally follows weekly & seasonal trends and daily patterns, which can be observed and forecasted over time.

Capacity Fluctuation:

In contrast, capacity varies much more, often due to the difficulty of planning. Factors contributing to these fluctuations include:

• Staff availability: Absences, holidays, and changes in staff scheduling are common and often unpredictable.
• Unforeseen Circumstances: Sickness, unexpected leave, or emergencies often impact capacity without sufficient backup planning.
• Lack of Detailed Planning: The complexity of dealing with many interrelated factors, such as the number of clinicians, their specializations, hours worked, and external influences, makes it difficult to maintain consistent capacity without a robust system in place.
• Complexity of inter-dependencies: Staff working in pairs or a session that happens IF another session does or does not happen.  Combine these rules with leave and sickness and you have a complex additional dimension to handle.
• Room availability: A fixed set of room assets makes it imperative to understand room capability, staff rotas, leave and room prioritisation.

Role of Statistical Modelling:

By applying simple statistical modelling approaches, you can forecast demand variation with high accuracy. This allows you to adjust capacity planning more effectively, even if demand remains largely stable.

Predictive Analytics:

Using models based on historical data, GP practices can anticipate periods of high or low demand, making it easier to plan staffing levels accordingly. Understanding demand gives planners the assurance they need to plan capacity. It helps to make sense of team based leave rules, room planning and more.

Solution:

The inherent difficulty of capacity planning can be addressed by using the Tempo platform, which offers data-driven insights and capacity modelling. By integrating long-term demand data and creating detailed, time-versioned, workforce plans, managing leave rules for teams and by being able to view strategic insights into capacity versus services plans, practices can significantly reduce unpredictable fluctuations in capacity and better plan their resources to match the relatively predictable demand levels.

In summary, with simple statistical modelling and long-term capacity planning tools, demand can be effectively matched to managed capacity fluctuations that are, themselves, minimized through structured and detailed workforce planning. This enables smoother operations in GP practices, greater staff satisfaction, optimised services delivery and better health outcomes for patients.

Tempo – Demand and capacity management for GP practices

Tempo, developed by GPnetworks, is a market-leading workforce and capacity management solution designed specifically for General Practice. It enables practices to manage complex operational challenges, including rota design, leave management, capacity planning, and service delivery optimization. By leveraging structured data, a robust architecture, and an intuitive UI, Tempo has become an indispensable tool for modern General Practice, helping practices maximize resources, reduce risk, and enhance staff satisfaction.

Tempo is a comprehensive workforce management platform that:

• Optimizes Rota Design: Balances staff availability, qualifications, and service demands while accounting for fixed resources (e.g., rooms, desks) and session-related rules (e.g., supervision, meetings).
• Manages Leave and Absences: Tracks leave entitlements, sickness, and overtime, ensuring compliance and adequate coverage.
• Supports Capacity Planning: Provides tools for long-term planning, enabling practices to anticipate and respond to future demands.
• Enhances Service Delivery: Aligns workforce capacity with service targets, improving patient satisfaction and operational efficiency.
• Provides Data-Driven Insights: Generates detailed reports on key metrics such as cost, staff utilization, and service performance.